It The Economists, Stupid!

Welcome Comrades,

With an important mid-term election bearing down on us, I feel it's vitally important to address the issues. You know, like how the hell are we supposed to survive the upcoming depression.

Obviously, Bush and the boys are trying to tear a page out of history. It was World War II that finally dragged America out of the Great Depression, so, if it takes a war, we get Iraq. It's not really like we're starting it. After all the comparisons of 9/11 to Pearl Harbor, it makes sense to continue the program with an escalating conflict. Come on, it worked last time. Unfortunately for us, whoever is advising the Bush administration has got their timetables all wrong. If history is repeating itself, it's 1932, not 1942. No big surprise that they're off by a decade with their ideas, but let me explain.

The 1920's was a period of unprecedented economic growth. The stock market was fueled by booming industries like autos and radio. Jobs were plentiful, so everyone loved Big Business. Starting with President Warren G. Harding, the government began dismantling the restrictions placed on Corporate America by mean liberals like Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson. The boom accelerated under President Calvin Coolidge, who's favorite motto was "Do nothing," which was exactly what he did. Gee, the presidency's a hard job. He refused to help bail out failing farmers and allowed industry tycoons to skate. He was actually re-elected by promising to do nothing. Everyone was too busy hanging out in speakeasys and doing the Charleston to notice the impending stock market crash of 1929. Does any of this sound familiar? Like hanging out in Starbucks and watching your stock options go up on your wireless PDA during a decade of unprecedented growth? How did we not see the crash? It's just history coming around for another go.

Coolidge was a notoriously reticent and stoic man. The most famous anecdote about him goes like this: A beautiful young woman was seated next to Coolidge at a dinner party. She coyly whispered in his ear, "I've made a bet that I can coax at least three words of converstaion out of you..." Without turning to look, he replied, "You lose."

So, anyway, if we're comparing depressions here, if Clinton is Coolidge, the bad news is that Bush is Hoover, the demonized president who presided over the Great Depression. Sorry, George, but I don't think you can compress this cycle of history from a decade to a fiscal year. We're not at the end of the depression; we're at the start. On the bright side, judging from all this, we can expect Bush to be a one-termer followed by a great, progressive Democrat. Your guess is as good as mine on who that might be...

Hasta la victoria siempre,

TVD

--- 11/04/02

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